Indiana-UNCG Preview: Last Test Before Paradise
Before heading to Paradise, Indiana faces one final test against a three-point happy UNCG squad.
The Bahamas are calling, but Indiana has some business to handle first.
Let's start with what we all know: Indiana's non-conference schedule this season is, well ... light.
That makes these early home games and next week's Battle 4 Atlantis absolutely crucial for building an NCAA Tournament resume.
Which brings us to Thursday night's matchup with UNC Greensboro.
On paper, this looks like another comfortable Assembly Hall evening. But UNCG's style of play - particularly their reliance on the three-point shot - presents exactly the kind of test Indiana needs before heading to the Bahamas.
The Story So Far
Three games in, and we're starting to see what this revamped Indiana team might become.
The offensive evolution has been noticeable, with Mackenzie Mgbako emerging as a genuine go-to scorer (22.0 ppg) and multiple weapons around him.
But perhaps most encouraging? The way Indiana's guards are controlling games, with Myles Rice commanding the offense and Trey Galloway providing playmaking punch off the bench.
UNCG arrives with a 2-1 record and a statistical profile that should have Indiana fans' attention. The Spartans launch threes at every opportunity (42.9% of their attempts come from deep) while preferring a deliberate pace that could test the Hoosiers' defensive discipline.
What to Know About UNCG
The Spartans (2-1) aren't your typical early-season visitor to Assembly Hall.
Last season, they went 21-11 and notched the program's first-ever ranked win by knocking off #14 Arkansas in Fayetteville. Even more relevant to Thursday's matchup: they finished 8th nationally in three-point shooting (38.9%).
This year's team features several dangerous scorers:
Kenyon Giles, a Radford transfer, has been lethal from deep (50.0% on threes, averaging 3.3 makes per game)
Donovan Atwell, their top returning scorer from last season (11.2 ppg), earned Preseason All-SoCon honors
Miles Jones just notched his first career double-double and leads the SoCon in rebounding (8.0 per game)
Akrum Ahemed is coming off a 16-point performance in their last game
Under head coach Mike Jones, UNCG has won 20+ games in two of the last three seasons. They're not just coming to Assembly Hall to pick up a check - they've shown they can compete with high-major competition.
Speaking of that outside shooting …
Early-Season Defensive Reality Check
Indiana’s defensive numbers through three games paint an encouraging picture compared to last season's start.
Remember those anxiety-inducing openers where FGCU and Army each dropped 13 threes on the Hoosiers? Yikes. Fortunately, nothing even remotely close to that has occurred so far this season.
But while this year's perimeter defense has produced better results (holding opponents to 26.1%), let's not get ahead of ourselves.
Against South Carolina, we saw plenty of good looks that simply didn't fall. And that first half against Eastern Illinois? Well, the less said about those defensive rotations, the better.
Still, the overall trends are moving in the right direction, even if there's clearly work to be done with this revamped roster.
A legitimate test awaits on Thursday in a UNCG team that launches nearly 43% of their shots from beyond the arc. Nothing exposes defensive inconsistencies on the perimeter quite like a team hunting threes at every opportunity.
The Math Problem
While there is much to be encouraged about through three regular season games for Indiana, one big elephant remains in the room: three-point math.
Indiana is dominating inside (62.2% on two-pointers) but still taking relatively few threes. Meanwhile, UNCG lives and dies by the three ball.
We've seen this equation burn Indiana before.
Even when you're getting efficient twos, trading those for threes can keep underdogs hanging around longer than anyone in cream and crimson wants to see. While Indiana's interior dominance should prevail, UNCG's path to making this interesting runs directly through getting hot from deep.
And even the three-point math doesn’t burn Indiana in this game, it becomes much more difficult to overcome against teams with similar levels of talent, size, and athleticism.
What's At Stake Thursday Night
Here's the reality: Indiana needs to accomplish several things before boarding that plane to Paradise.
The formula starts with early energy - that first half against Eastern Illinois? Can't happen again. Not with the Bahamas looming.
Beyond that baseline expectation, there are specific developments to watch for against UNCG:
Luke Goode’s production - Goode's shooting will be essential in the Bahamas. His track record tells us the shots will fall, but getting him in rhythm Thursday would be huge for Indiana's spacing and offensive ceiling.
Continued Guard Development - Myles Rice and Trey Galloway need to continue being their dynamic offensive engines they’ve been through three games. Kanaan Carlyle's 12-point performance against South Carolina showed the kind of spark he can provide, and Indiana will need that scoring punch against better competition. And while Bryson Tucker is likely to be a wild card for at least the first two months of the season, any production that can build his confidence before next week will be a plus.
Defensive Growth - UNCG will test Indiana's ability to defend the three-point line while maintaining interior presence. Those perimeter rotations and closeouts need to be sharper than what we've seen in stretches so far.
Rebounding Habits - While Indiana's size advantage has masked some rebounding lapses so far, those details matter. Soon they'll face teams with similar size and athleticism who will punish any lack of fundamentals on the glass.
Get these things right, and the Hoosiers will head to the Bahamas with real momentum. Stumble in any of these areas? Well, that plane ride might feel a lot longer.
The Numbers That Matter
Some statistical dynamics worth keeping an eye on:
UNCG's defense struggles mightily to force turnovers (13.7%, 316th nationally) - Indiana should be able to run their offense freely if the Hoosiers can avoid sloppy, unforced turnovers.
The Spartans are foul-prone on defense (33.9 free throw rate allowed), which could mean early bonus situations for Indiana.
Most importantly: can Indiana's defense maintain its improved three-point numbers against a team that hunts them relentlessly? (Are you sensing theme here?)
The Call
The first five minutes of each half should tell us plenty.
If Indiana establishes their preferred pace and interior dominance early, it could be a comfortable night. But if UNCG starts knocking down threes and controlling tempo? Well ... that's when you'll hear 17,222 folks getting a bit restless.
Given Indiana's interior advantages and improved guard play, plus the motivation to build momentum before heading to Paradise, look for the Hoosiers to gradually pull away for a comfortable win.
Prediction: Indiana 87, UNCG 64
Tip-off is set for 6:30 PM ET at Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall. Connor Onion and Robbie Hummel have the call on FS1.
Join us immediately following the game for another edition of The Assembly Call IU Postgame Show.
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What do you think are the keys to (comfortable) victory on Thursday night?
What are you watching for as Indiana prepares for Atlantis?
Comment below!
I believe in playing to your strengths, in this game I’ll take two twos for one three. There will be games where we will not dominate inside and threes will be relied upon more. But increasing three-point attempts just to satisfy some unquantifiable results sounds a bit risky. I’m confident that there are many three- point happy teams that would love to trade some for our strength and ability to score inside. More importantly is the need to disrupt opponents long range shooting and and then rebounding those misses. Look at the Purdue vs Marquette game. Marquette took away Purdue’s outside game and forced them into making bad passes resulting in turnovers that led to a big loss! Making treys is important, but teams relying those too heavily win or lose on that stat alone.