Indiana vs Louisville Preview: Moment of Truth Arrives in Paradise

Battle 4 Atlantis opener against Louisville provides perfect opportunity for Hoosiers to validate early promise, buck big game struggles under Woodson.

Luke Goode and Myles Rice celebrate during Indiana’s victory over UNC-Greensboro. (Image credit: Indiana University Athletics)

The rebuilding of Indiana basketball under Mike Woodson has been a gradual process, marked by encouraging signs and frustrating setbacks.

Woodson led Indiana back to the NCAA Tournament in each of his first two seasons, but the Hoosiers stumbled last season due to injuries and an ill-conceived roster. With the lessons of last season’s failure in mind, Woodson and his staff went about rebuilding IU basketball again — through an aggressive portal strategy, a key freshman addition, and a revamped offense built around versatile guards and multiple scoring options.

Now, four games into the 2024-25 campaign, all of that offseason maneuvering faces its first real test.

The Battle 4 Atlantis represents not just Indiana's best chance at quality non-conference wins, but an opportunity to prove this reimagined roster is ready for prime time.

The stakes for Wednesday's tournament opener against Louisville could hardly be higher.

• Win, and a likely matchup with third-ranked Gonzaga awaits, potentially followed by a championship clash with Arizona. Those are the kinds of wins that can anchor an NCAA Tournament resume.

• Lose on Wednesday, and suddenly Indiana's deliberately light non-conference slate becomes a potentially season-long albatross.

With so much riding on this game, let's take a deep look at what makes this matchup fascinating and how Indiana can position itself for success in Paradise.

A Study in Contrasts

While Indiana enters at 4-0 but still searching for consistency, Louisville (3-1) arrives as perhaps the most intriguing unknown in this tournament field.

First-year head coach Pat Kelsey has essentially started from scratch, building through the transfer portal and freshman additions to create a roster that ranks 352nd nationally in minutes continuity. But don't mistake unfamiliarity for lack of identity.

The Cardinals have fully embraced Kelsey's distinctive style: they rank fourth nationally in three-point attempt rate, launching a staggering 54.6% of their shots from beyond the arc while playing at his characteristically breakneck pace (72.5 adjusted tempo, 26th nationally).

The catch? Those threes aren't falling yet – Louisville is shooting just 29.4% from deep. But volume shooting teams are always just a few makes away from finding their rhythm — more on this below.

The Tennessee Blueprint

Indiana and Louisville have a common opponent early this season: Tennessee. The Hoosiers played the Volunteers in Knoxville for a charity exhibition while Louisville hosted Tennessee in their second regular season game.

Indiana's exhibition win in Knoxville did not officially count, but many who were in attendance said it had the intensity of a regular season game. The Hoosiers won the game 66-62, showcasing their ideal formula: Rice's dynamic guard play, Mgbako's scoring versatility, and Reneau's inside presence overwhelming the Volunteers on their home court.

Louisville's home game against Tennessee told a very different story. The Cardinals' 77-55 loss exposed their vulnerability inside, where they shot a miserable 6-of-21 on two-point attempts. Tennessee's three-headed attack of Zakai Zeigler, Chaz Lanier, and Felix Okpara dominated the game - a blueprint that maps perfectly onto Indiana's primary weapons in Rice, Mgbako, and the Reneau/Ballo tandem.

The Paradise Test

Before diving deeper into matchups, it's worth noting the unique environment awaiting both teams.

The Imperial Arena at Atlantis isn't your typical neutral venue -- it's a converted ballroom that seats just 3,500. The sight lines are different, the depth perception is challenging, and the atmosphere is intimate. It's not Assembly Hall or the KFC Yum! Center — or even a standard neutral court.

While this setting has historically produced some unusual shooting performances, it's certainly possible to find rhythm there. Just ask Indiana women's guard Shay Ciezki, who erupted for 34 points on 9-16 shooting to lead the Hoosiers past Baylor in yesterday's Battle 4 Atlantis semifinal. (The Hoosiers face North Carolina today in the Battle 4 Atlantis championship game.)

For a Louisville team hunting threes, and an Indiana team that needs to prevent them, the venue's potential impact on shooting — especially in each team’s first game there — will be worth tracking.

The Guard Battle

The matchup between Indiana's Myles Rice (14.8 ppg, 4.5 apg) and Louisville's Chucky Hepburn (10.5 ppg, 4.0 apg) will be an interesting one.

In Louisville’s loss to Tennessee, the Cardinals forced Zeigler — a preseason Second Team All-American by Blue Ribbon — into 11 turnovers. That Tennessee still won by 22 is a testament to how dominant they were inside and how inefficient Louisville’s offense was in that game.

Rice’s one weakness this season has been turnovers — with a high turnover rate of 26.7%. Trey Galloway, Indiana’s other primary ball-handler, is turning it over on 29.5% of possessions. Each is countering the turnovers with a high rate of assists, but the Hoosiers might not be able to muster the rebounding dominance that Tennessee did (40-26) in countering their high turnover number against Louisville.

Despite the turnovers, Rice’s development as Indiana's primary ball-handler has been impressive through four games. And while this represents his biggest regular season test yet in an Indiana uniform, his ability to outplay the defensive-minded Ziegler in Knoxville (20 points, 4 assists, 0 turnovers) was an excellent early sign that Indiana finally has a real dude manning the point guard position once again.

The Three-Point Dilemma

Here's where things get fascinating from a strategic perspective.

Louisville's extreme reliance on three-point shooting presents Indiana with a complex defensive challenge. While the Hoosiers' interior defense has always been strong under Woodson, and is again early this season (holding opponents to 41.5% on twos, 21st nationally), their perimeter defense remains a work in progress.

The challenge for Indiana's perimeter defenders isn't just fighting through screens — it's maintaining disciplined help defense principles. Over-helping has frequently led to scramble situations and open threes, something Louisville's offense is designed to exploit.

So far, Indiana opponents are only shooting 27.1% from 3-point range, but that impressive number may be more due to small sample size and statistical noise than anything related to actual improved 3-point defense from the Hoosiers.

Indiana’s defensive 3P% the last three seasons under Mike Woodson have been 33.0%, 33.4%, and 34.3%. And the Hoosiers are still allowing a high number of attempts each game (42.1% of opponent shot attempts are three-pointers), in line with each of Woodson’s three seasons at IU — 40.1%, 37.8%, 41.2%.

Plus, statistical research suggests three-point percentage is more shooter-dependent than defense-dependent, meaning Louisville's current 29.4% mark from deep might be due for positive regression to the mean. Let’s just hope the Cardinals wait one more game before finally breaking out from the outside.

Rotation Impact

While fast starts are always welcome (as Indiana showed against UNC-Greensboro), maintaining performance through lineup changes has proven challenging for the Hoosiers — especially in first halves.

The tournament's broader implications make Indiana's bench development particularly intriguing. While Wednesday's game might not require huge contributions from supporting players, advancing deep in the winner’s bracket of this tournament almost certainly will.

Kanaan Carlyle has shown defensive tenacity while seeking offensive consistency. Bryson Tucker dominated UNC-Greensboro in the second half and now faces his first action away from Assembly Hall.

Meanwhile, Luke Goode's clutch three against UNCG could signal the veteran finding his shooting touch - a potentially crucial tournament-long weapon if Indiana needs to answer opponent runs from deep.

Historical Red Flags

Indiana's track record under Woodson in showcase events remains concerning:

• An 89-75 loss to Arizona in Las Vegas

• A dispiriting 84-62 defeat at Kansas

• A 77-57 dismantling by UConn

• A 104-76 demolition by Auburn

Add in the Hoosiers’ two blowout losses in each of their NCAA Tournament appearances, and you have a lot of evidence to back up many IU fans’ feelings of trepidation heading into Atlantis.

More worrying still, this year's team has shown similar focus issues that plagued those losses. The first-half struggles against Eastern Illinois and defensive lapses versus UNC-Greensboro hint at a team still learning to maintain intensity through lineup changes and momentum swings.

Given the importance of these three games to Indiana’s NCAA Tournament resume, and the narrative now attached to Woodson’s IU tenure of underperforming in these showcase events, Wednesday represents a massive opportunity that the Hoosiers need to capitalize on.

The Path to Victory

For Indiana to buck their struggles in these types of games, their formula must start with defensive discipline.

Early disruption of Louisville's shooting rhythm is essential, as is establishing their interior advantage through Reneau and Ballo. Most importantly, Indiana must maintain defensive focus and offensive execution even as rotations shift throughout the game.

Keeping Ballo out of foul trouble, so he can provide rim protection and rebounding for as many minutes as possible, will also be key. (This will likely be a theme all season long.)

The Cardinals, meanwhile, need to hit early shots to build confidence. They also need to force tempo to create open looks before Indiana's defense sets. Getting Ballo in foul trouble could open driving lanes that create kickout opportunities for their shooters.

Key Player: Mackenzie Mgbako

Mackenzie Mgbako's start to the season has been everything Indiana fans could have hoped for from the former five-star recruit.

He leads the team at 18.8 points per game while shooting 53.3% from three and showing the kind of three-level scoring ability that make him a potentially special offensive player. But his struggles against UNC-Greensboro (2-11 from the field) serve as a reminder that even the most talented players will have their off nights.

In a tournament setting where stars often need to be stars, Mgbako's ability to bounce back becomes crucial. This is especially true against a 3-happy team like Louisville because if they find their shooting stroke from deep, Indiana will need its own perimeter weapons to answer.

And while Wednesday's opener is important, advancing in the winner’s bracket— particularly against potential matchups with Gonzaga and Arizona — will almost certainly require Mgbako playing at the level we saw in Indiana's first three games.

Was the UNC-Greensboro performance just a one-game blip or a sign of shooting struggles to come? The answer to that question could go a long way toward determining not just Wednesday's outcome, but Indiana's ceiling in this tournament.

Mgbako’s strong finish to last season, his excellent start to this season, and his consistent confidence and clean shooting mechanics offer plenty of evidence that IU fans should feel good about his ability to rise to the biggest occasion of his young career.

Paradise Awaits

KenPom projects Indiana as a 6-point favorite with a 71% win probability, but the unique dynamics of this matchup create significant upset potential.

With Louisville's volume three-point shooting approach meeting Indiana's still-questionable perimeter defense in an unusual arena environment, anything seems possible.

Still, this Indiana team feels different.

The guard play is more dynamic, the offensive options are more varied, and the defensive potential — when focused — is more impressive. I expect the Hoosiers to weather a few intermittent Louisville runs and gain some second-half separation thanks to superior talent and balance.

Prediction: Indiana 81, Louisville 70

Final Thought

It will be fascinating to see if Indiana can show the focus and fortitude that has so often eluded us in these settings under Mike Woodson. Given the outsized importance of this game, the Hoosiers have very little margin for error.

Beat Louisville, and we have a real chance to get the games — and wins — we need from this trip.

Lose on Wednesday, and our NCAA Tournament resume already starts sliding a little closer to the 8-ball in November. That’s not a spot anyone wants to be in so early in such a promising season.