IU-South Carolina Preview: Indiana Gets Its First Real Test Saturday
Saturday's matchup with South Carolina presents the Hoosiers' first real opportunity to measure their progress against high-major competition.
Game Info:
Indiana v South Carolina
Assembly Hall
Saturday, November 16th
3:00 p.m. ET
TV: Peacock
Preview
The start to Indiana's season has been encouraging: two dominant wins, improved offensive flow, and the emergence of Mackenzie Mgbako as a genuine scoring threat.
But Saturday's matchup with South Carolina presents the Hoosiers' first real opportunity to measure their progress against high-major competition.
Assembly Hall has seen its share of early-season drama over the years, particularly when opponents find shooting rhythm from beyond the arc. While Indiana has shown improved perimeter defense early this season (holding SIUE and Eastern Illinois to a combined 26.1% from three), South Carolina brings a different level of talent and experience to Bloomington.
"We got new guys and everybody's still trying to learn what the hell is going on," Mike Woodson acknowledged this week. "We have made progress. I'm not going to sit and let you guys tell us that we haven't because we have, but we got a long way to go."
This game, Indiana's only home contest against high-major competition before Big Ten play, should give us our clearest picture yet of what this revamped roster might become.
The Stars Align
Both teams feature emerging stars, though their styles couldn't be more different.
Mackenzie Mgbako has been Indiana's revelation, averaging 24.5 points while displaying the kind of three-level scoring ability that made him a five-star recruit. His 74.1% shooting from the field (including 66.7% from three) has transformed Indiana's offensive spacing.
"I like everything about what he's done from an offensive standpoint," Woodson said. "And he's gotten a little better defensively."
For South Carolina, sophomore Collin Murray-Boyles brings a more bruising approach, averaging 20.3 points and 10.7 rebounds while shooting 62.9% from the field. "He is a load," Woodson noted, in what might be the understatement of the young season.
The matchup between Murray-Boyles and Malik Reneau could determine the game's outcome. Murray-Boyles has already attempted 23 free throws in three games, making Reneau's ability to defend without fouling absolutely crucial.
A Chess Match of Tempo and Threes
Here's where things get interesting.
South Carolina head coach Lamont Paris, familiar with Assembly Hall from his Wisconsin assistant days, has never had a team finish higher than 248th nationally in tempo. Last season, his Gamecocks averaged 19.4 seconds per possession (346th nationally).
While they're playing slightly faster this year, that's likely more about competition level than philosophical change. South Carolina will look to slow the game down and find quality looks, particularly from beyond the arc.
This is where the danger lies for Indiana. While South Carolina's shooters have started slowly this season (29.7% from three as a team), they have several players capable of heating up:
Myles Stute: 37.9% career three-point shooter (220-581)
Jamarii Thomas: 35.4% career (despite 0-4 start this year)
Jacobi Wright: Finding his rhythm this season (7-15) after shooting 32.9% for his career
The Gamecocks' starting lineup of Thomas, Wright, Stute, Murray-Boyles, and Alabama transfer Nick Pringle gives them scoring threats at multiple positions. Indiana can't afford to let them find early comfort from deep.
Depth and Development
Indiana's improved depth could prove decisive.
Trey Galloway's playmaking (8.5 assists per game) has been exceptional off the bench, though Woodson noted, "Unfortunately, I can't play him 30 minutes because his body won't take it right now."
The Hoosiers will need contributions from senior Luke Goode's outside shooting and freshman Bryson Tucker's athletic scoring punch – particularly after the first-half struggles against Eastern Illinois showed what can happen when the energy isn't there from the opening tip.
If Reneau or Oumar Ballo get into foul trouble, Indiana might have to get creative – either going small with Mgbako at the four or turning to Langdon Hatton's more versatile offensive game.
The Assembly Hall Edge
Paris knows the challenge ahead:
"There are a lot of hard places to play in that conference but that is one of them, particularly when they are playing well and when their fans believe that their team is good."
While this may not be North Carolina or Kansas coming to town, it represents a critical early test. The Assembly Hall crowd, perhaps still feeling out this revamped roster, has an opportunity to impact a game that could tell us a lot about Indiana's ceiling.
Keys to Victory
For Indiana:
Control Murray-Boyles without fouling
Push pace and find quality shots (including transition threes) without getting sloppy
Continue Mgbako's efficient scoring against better athletes
Get early bench contributions to maintain momentum
Most importantly: Don't let South Carolina's shooters find early rhythm
For South Carolina:
Establish their more deliberate pace
Find early shooting confidence
Get either Reneau or Ballo in foul trouble
Control defensive glass to limit transition
The Prediction
KenPom projects Indiana as a 6-point favorite with a 71% win probability.
While the Hoosiers' improved guard play and Mgbako's emergence suggest they could exceed that margin, there are just enough warning signs – South Carolina's ability to control pace, their shooting potential, Murray-Boyles' physicality – to warrant caution.
The first five minutes of both halves are likely to be crucial, as they so often are — perhaps especially so given the night-and-day difference between Indiana’s first half and second half play the last time out.
If Indiana can establish pace and defensive intensity early while keeping Murray-Boyles from getting easy position, they could win comfortably.
But if South Carolina controls tempo and finds early shooting rhythm? We'll all be having flashbacks to too many unexpected Assembly Hall heart-stoppers of years past.
Now over to you …
What are your keys to the game for Indiana?
Also consider:
Will be insightful to see with how much energy we start the game. Coming from behind is a recipe for disaster against good opponents. Hope the coaching staff has made whatever adjustments are necessary after our pathetic first half play the last game.