[Postgame 3-2-1] What We Learned From Indiana's Win Against Wright State

Jerod breaks down three key stats, two observations, and one lingering question from yet another uneven early-season Indiana victory.

Last night’s Indiana game was yet another Rorschach test for IU fans.

On the one hand, Indiana is now 3-0. Given how many power conference teams have taken disappointing losses so far this season, that unblemished record is meaningful.

And there were legitimate improvements on display last night. Remember the three things I said I was focused on prior to the game? I came away with positive feelings about all three:

• The starters opened the game better

• Mackenzie Mgbako was better (more on this below)

• CJ Gunn and Kaleb Banks showed growth.

That has to matter.

But on the other hand, Indiana has dropped 15 spots in the KenPom rankings since the season started. And while KenPom rankings are far from the be-all/end-all, especially this early in the season when they are very noisy, the current rankings are an objective metric that reflect Indiana’s general underperformance, relative to expectations, in each of its three games.

So how ready will Indiana be for Sunday, when the Hoosiers face the defending champs on a neutral court? I have no idea. Obviously Xavier Johnson’s health will be a big part of the equation.

It’s an important early-season barometer for Indiana. And while there were spurts last night where Indiana seemed ready for the challenge, there were other spurts suggesting that another non-conference butt kicking may be on its way.

Let’s break down three key stats, two observations, and one lingering question coming out of Indiana’s game against Wright State.

Did you miss yesterday's edition of the postgame show?

3 Meaningful Stats

1. Wright State outscored Indiana by 24 points from the 3-point line.

Look, I don’t want to keep leading off these emails with 3-point stats any more than Mike Woodson wants to keep having to talk about it in postgame press conferences.

(Congrats on becoming a grandfather, Coach!)

But it’s the single biggest issue for this team through three regular season games.

Indiana is currently 326th in the country in offensive 3-point field goal rate (how often they take 3s) and 278th in 3-point field goal percentage. In total, the Hoosiers are 349th in the country (out of 362 teams) in terms of percentage of points scored from the behind the arc.

In other words, Indiana isn’t using the 3-point line with any discernible volume or efficiency on offense.

And that’s not even the worst part of the equation.

Defensively, Indiana is 348th in defensive 3-point field goal rate, with teams taking a whopping 51.3% of their shots from deep. Unfortunately, teams are also shooting a solid 37.8% clip against IU, which ranks 288th.

So Indiana — despite a very strong 41.9% defensive field goal percentage on 2-point attempts — is giving up way too many points to undermanned opponents because of how many quality 3-point looks the defense is allowing.

In total, Indiana’s three opponents are scoring 53.6% of their points from behind the arc, which is dead last in the country. Is this a function of Indiana playing smaller teams that know their only chance is to chuck up a bunch of 3s? Of course!

But when you let a role player with a 0.0 offensive rating entering the game pop for 25 points on 7-10 shooting from downtown (as Andrew Welage did last night), you’ve got problems beyond extreme opponent shot diets or random variance.

We’ve seen this same thing for three games now, five if you count the exhibitions. This isn’t just a small sample size blip. Instead, it’s a very concerning trend, especially given the Hoosiers’ opponent on Sunday: a UConn team taking 46.4% of its shots from 3-point range, with capable shooters like Cam Spencer and Alex Karaban.

2. Indiana won because they only turned in over eight times.

If you’re going to consistently get killed from behind the 3-point line, then you have to make up for it by putting shot volume in your favor on the other end.

It’s simple math. If your opponent outscores you by 24 from behind the line, then you have to compensate from 2-point range and the free throw line by at least 25 points. Indiana can do that fairly easily in a matchup like this, where Wright State is missing its best player and has no one who can handle Kel’el Ware and Malik Reneau in the post, but only if the Hoosiers can get enough shots up without costly turnovers.

Against Army, Indiana turned it over a ridiculous 18 times. That’s why Army ended up taking so many more shots than Indiana — 18 more in total, which is ridiculous.

Last night, Indiana limited the turnovers to just eight, which is why Indiana was able to take just seven fewer shots from the field than Wright State and a whopping 15 more free throws. With Indiana shooting 67% from 2-point range, thanks to the excellent play of Malik and Kel’el, it was more than enough to get the win.

This is going to be a key stat all season. With Indiana losing at the 3-point line and not showing any ability yet to gain a rebounding advantage, the Hoosiers have to make the most of every possession. Excessive turnovers are a third obstacle this team simply won’t be able to overcome against good, healthy teams.

3. Malik Reneau committed just one foul in 29 minutes.

Don’t look now, but Malik is committing just 2.2 fouls per 40 minutes so far this season. (His fouls committed per 40 minutes rate last season was a crazy 6.8.) Malik committed just one foul in 29 minutes last night after committing just one in 32 minutes against Army.

Is this a function of smaller teams not dumping it down to Malik’s man in the post? Perhaps. But a lot of Malik’s fouls last season came while he scrambled to defend on the perimeter. He’s still having to do that this season, but we’re seeing far fewer hand-check fouls and stumbling/off-balance fouls that were so common last season.

And this has been massive for Indiana, which has gone to Malik in key moments in each of its three single-digit victories to open the season. He is this team’s offensive identity right now, and I shudder to think what might have happened in any of these three games if Malik hadn’t been available down the stretch.

This will be an important number to track as the competition improves. But last season Malik was picking up fouls against all levels of competition. So this is a very positive early-season development.

Now let’s dive into two key observations and a major lingering question coming out of the first three games of the season.