37 Comments
author

I like the explanation from Tony, but one of my pet peeves about all the analytics is that they don't account for actual performance on the floor. A team may not be playing to its potential, but all that matters at the end of the day is the W or the L. I know, I know, that is heresy to those of us who grew up with Bob Knight, but you are ultimately judged by your wins and losses. As Bill Parcells famously said, "you are what your record says you are". Even when I coached, I would rather win ugly than lose pretty.

Expand full comment
Dec 7, 2023Liked by Tony Adragna, Jerod Morris

Thanks for a great, clear explanation. I look at KenPom occasionally, but now understand it better. IU will be top 20, but I’m an optimist.

Expand full comment
Dec 7, 2023Liked by Jerod Morris

It seems like the first part of that calculation related to previous year minutes played needs to be adjusted. Guys moving in the transfer portal has changed the game.

Expand full comment
Dec 7, 2023Liked by Tony Adragna, Jerod Morris

I review KenPom after every IU game. I was wondering about IU’s low score but also knew we’ve only played one solid opponent, UConn. Great breakdown of how these rankings work. I predict IU will finish at 35 on KenPom,

Expand full comment
Dec 7, 2023Liked by Tony Adragna, Jerod Morris

I never check KenPom, in answer to your query! It may be generational, I'm old, but I concentrate on the play on the floor, the team on the floor and the results. Results matter to me. I enjoy all of this analytics discussion and kerfluffle, but in a relatively busy life, I usually skip charts, grafts and predictive narrative. Maybe I'm just lazy.

Expand full comment
Dec 7, 2023Liked by Tony Adragna, Jerod Morris

Thanks for that breakdown. I always knew it was more than win/loss, and the team's progression actually mirrors my personal intuition regarding the team. They've shown poor, but improving, play as games progress. If they get all the moving pieces together they'll be a pretty good team.

Expand full comment

Thanks Tony. I love this stuff. I tend to focus on the things that we are clearly an outlier on (good and bad) and try to understand whether they will continue. At some point in the season, you usually are who you are and what the analytics are pointing out but early in the season there is still some chance to shape things. For example, the often discussed three point shooting / rate / percentage of offense, etc. IU is not going to suddenly become Iowa, but I do hold out some hope that we can shape those numbers somewhat. By being a fan of the team you are more aware than computers on what might transpire. X could get healthy and give us a boost, CJ could start to make a few, Galloway might regain some confidence. All are still possible I think but won't show up in the analytics until we demonstrated them with some regularity. If this stuff was truly the end all there wouldn't be a Vegas. Thanks again.

Expand full comment

I started looking at KenPom with some regularity in the past couple of years (mostly because my analytics-minded husband got interested in the numbers). Mostly I looked at KenPom out of curiosity, understanding only peripherally how the ranking are calculated. Thanks for a clear explanation of KenPom, Tony!

Expand full comment
Dec 7, 2023Liked by Tony Adragna, Jerod Morris

^good summary of where IU sits but also good to check Haslam and EvanMiya too

Expand full comment
Dec 7, 2023Liked by Tony Adragna, Jerod Morris
Dec 7, 2023Liked by Tony Adragna, Jerod Morris

Tony, great analysis. Didn’t know most of this. Hypothetical question... Should IU beat both Auburn and Kansas, we’d be 9-1 and certainly in the Top 25 in polls. Where would that put us in KenPom?

Expand full comment
Dec 8, 2023·edited Dec 8, 2023Liked by Tony Adragna

I’m not too into the analytics, but I do like how he gradually weeds out the past over time. It makes sense why we’re lower right now. The eye test, I think we can probably all agree on, shows us this team is improving and feels better than the current ranking. If we continue to improve the rankings will take care of themselves. It’s so nice to see our team improving compared to before Woody when it seemed like we never showed growth. Nice explanation. Thank you & Go Hoosiers.

Expand full comment
Dec 8, 2023Liked by Tony Adragna

A great explanation and analysis Tony. I think as the season rolls on, more teams get into conference play and the sample size gets into this year, IU will be more top 10% of programs than top 20%.

KenPom is worth my $20 a year, if for no other reason, because it's a great place for aggregated data on specific team and player performance spanning 25 years.When I'm looking at a team playing this season, the site tracks overall strengths and weaknesses. The individualized player data and lineup frequency tracking helps deep dives into a team's identity.

The overall rankings are important and it's a good addition to Torvik, NET and polling on evaluating how teams are actually doing. Still, at this point in the season and throughout, it's a good guide to how teams play, who they have on the court and what their resume is to date.

Expand full comment

Good explainer, Tony. Because the rating services have radically different comp weightings on current vs past performance, I generally shift between Torvik and KenPom depending on the time of the year.

Expand full comment

KenPom seems to hate Indiana beginning of every season that I have been looking at it. Any analytics that put anything over winning I'm not a fan of. The committee seems to care more about that then analytics so seems like that should be the main factor in any ranking systems, no?

Expand full comment

Pols are just pols, I have no faith in them. Look at what the score is when the buzzer sounds.

THESE KIDS are finding ways to win, also faith in the TEAM. The bench is now scoring , learning ther roll

to be part of the TEAM, getting there minutes and growing for FUTURE. It will not happen in a couple of years. Let us be happy they are finding the way to be IU, our fans will learn to enjoy this season.

Expand full comment