[X&J #21] The 2024-25 Basketball Season: Which Teams Are Due For A Regression and Which Ones Are Bouncing Back?
This episode examines how college basketball programs experience and handle regression, exploring both historical patterns and current examples of teams navigating performance declines.
This episode examines how college basketball programs experience and handle regression, exploring both historical patterns and current examples of teams navigating performance declines.
Bob Moats and Mike Wiemuth break down what separates programs that successfully bounce back from those that struggle to recover, while examining different strategies for mitigating regression's impact.
Segment 1: Understanding Regression
Hall of Fame coaches like Tom Izzo demonstrate that program success follows peaks and valleys rather than steady progression
Supporting players' statistical performance is significantly influenced by playing alongside All-American caliber teammates
Matt Painter's tenure at Purdue shows clear cycles of program building and regression
The "Baby Boilers" to "Johnson years" transition illustrates how roster turnover impacts program stability
Discussion of how coach evaluation timelines have shortened in the transfer portal era
Segment 2: Teams on Regression Watch
Analysis of Purdue's outlook after losing Zach Edey and the challenges of maintaining elite status
Tennessee's adaptation to losing Dalton Knecht and their defensive identity
Examination of Baylor's roster construction and recruiting approach
The impact of minutes continuity on program stability and performance
How conference strength affects a program's ability to manage regression
Segment 3: Bouncing Back
Comparison of Indiana and UCLA's different approaches to rebuilding through the transfer portal
Notre Dame's focus on high school recruiting under Micah Shrewsbury
Cincinnati's emergence under Wes Miller through balanced recruiting
The role of program resources and brand in determining rebuild strategy
How NIL and the transfer portal have changed the timeline for program turnarounds
For coaches, administrators, and invested fans, this episode provides context for understanding the cyclical nature of program success and offers insights into how modern programs can manage inevitable downturns.
The discussion helps set realistic expectations while examining the various paths programs can take to maintain or regain competitive status.
The YouTube video is below, and you can listen to the audio wherever podcasts are available.
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If you thoughts or comments about the episode, feel free to comment on YouTube video, comment below, or reach out to Mike (@M_Wiemuth_) and Bob (@BobMoats) on Twitter or in our BHN Discord.
Really enjoyed this pod. Something I hadn’t thought about was how superstars can make teammates better but when they move on those players typically revert to a lower level. I do still believe that you have to have a system that you build around. Yes talent is required but I think there is a higher probability to recover from down years if you have a successful framework.