[X&J #23.5] We've Seen This Before: Assessing the Current State of Indiana Basketball
Hosts Bob Moats and Mike Wiemuth analyze the current situation regarding Indiana basketball and the noise around head coach Mike Woodson. What can history teach us about how these situations play out?
Hosts Bob Moats and Mike Wiemuth provide an emergency analysis of Indiana University basketball's current state following concerning recent losses and program developments.
Segment 1
After briefly discussing their recent trip to Philadelphia and the historic Palestra, they examine the underlying factors contributing to IU's current struggles:
The unique nature of Mike Woodson's hiring and the dual expectations he faced
Early successes in his first two years followed by concerning regression in year three
Recruitment challenges, including going 0-31 on top-100 guard offers and losing key commitments
Segment 2
The hosts provide detailed analysis of ten key indicators that typically signal problems for a coaching tenure, based on Mike Wiemuth's research into coaching transitions:
Lack of winning relative to expectations: Despite a 14-5 record, recent blowout losses and struggles against top competition are concerning
Underperformance against rivals/contemporaries: Particularly notable given Purdue's success and recent losses to programs like Louisville
Erosion of trust with local coaching networks: Limited engagement with high school and AAU coaches, with many lacking direct contact with the staff
Declining attendance: Notable student section departures during games and increasingly visible empty seats
Loss of attraction with high-impact recruits: Going 0-31 on top-100 guard offers and losing key commitments like Liam McNeely
Increased media speculation: Growing national coverage questioning the program's direction
Staff stability concerns: While more stable than previous struggling tenures, signs of stress appearing
Social media sentiment: Reaching concerning 3-to-1 negative to positive ratio thresholds
Negative program leaks: Increasing behind-the-scenes stories emerging
Vocal fan displeasure: Growing audible frustration at home games, which research shows is often a late-stage indicator
The hosts note that these indicators tend to build on each other, creating momentum that becomes increasingly difficult to reverse.
Segment 3 and wrap up
The hosts discuss how to approach the remainder of the season as fans:
Acknowledge that events are largely beyond fan control
Understand that while turnarounds are possible, they become increasingly improbable
Root for the current players while being realistic about the situation
Recognize that significant changes may be coming regardless of late-season results
Throughout the episode, they emphasize providing analytical context rather than advocacy, helping fans understand the mechanics and patterns of college basketball programs during challenging transitions.
The episode ends with some lighter discussion of their recent Philadelphia trip, including authentic cheesesteaks and the historic Palestra.
The YouTube video is below, and you can listen to the audio wherever podcasts are available.
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If you thoughts or comments about the episode, feel free to comment on YouTube video, comment below, or reach out to Mike (@M_Wiemuth_) and Bob (@BobMoats) on Twitter or in our BHN Discord.
Great show, really enjoyed it.
Thank you, Bob and Mike! Data and analyses really help in an unbiased way shine a light not just on what is right before us, but ahead as well...not to mention a solid beam backward to show us how we’ve gotten where we are. Informative and entertaining, as always! I’m here, as a Hoosier, for the long haul.