[Xs & Joes #32] Mid-Major Purge
Bob Moats and Mike Wiemuth examine how the transfer portal and NIL have fundamentally altered the landscape for mid-major teams and their ability to pull off NCAA tournament upsets.
Bob Moats and Mike Wiemuth examine how the transfer portal and NIL have fundamentally altered the landscape for mid-major teams and their ability to pull off NCAA tournament upsets.
[0:00-5:00] Introduction & Producer Welcome
Introduction of new producer William McDermott
Discussion of recent Indy 500 race
Setup for main topic on March Madness becoming "less mad"
[5:00-15:00] The Old Formula for Mid-Major Upsets
Analysis of Mercer's 2014 upset victory over Duke as the archetypal example
Two key historical advantages identified:
Experience advantage: Mercer's starting five had 20 years combined college experience vs Duke's 10 years
Roster continuity: Four of Mercer's starters played together since 2012 (90+ games as a unit) vs Duke's 14 games together
Historical pattern of upsets featuring experienced, cohesive mid-major teams against talent-heavy but inexperienced major programs
[15:00-30:00] Transfer Portal's Devastating Impact on Mid-Majors
Stark statistics: 80% of quality mid-major players (starters averaging 10+ PPG) now transfer up
Conference-by-conference breakdown:
Southern Conference: Only 1 of 11 top returning players staying
Missouri Valley Conference: Just 3 of 15 top players returning (80% bleed rate)
The "dual challenge": Mid-majors lose their best players while also losing potential replacements to major programs
[30:00-40:00] The New Minor League Reality
Mid-majors now function as a development system for power conferences
Power conference coaches no longer need to gamble on unproven recruits
Can simply observe and poach players who prove themselves at lower levels
[40:00-50:00] Alternative Models for Future Success
"Ocean's Eleven" approach: Assembling rosters from multiple transfer sources (Indiana State 2024 example)
Coach-led transfers: Bringing entire successful programs up levels (Ben McCollum at Drake example)
Systematic advantages through coaching and scheme rather than talent accumulation
[50:00-55:00] Looking Forward & Market Adaptation
Recognition that upsets will become increasingly rare
Alternative postseason opportunities like NIT may gain importance
College basketball still in flux with final competitive equilibrium yet to be established
The episode ultimately suggests that while the magic of March may be diminishing, mid-major programs that can adapt to this new reality may still find ways to compete—just not in the same David vs. Goliath fashion that made college basketball's greatest upsets so memorable.
The YouTube video is below, and you can listen to the audio wherever podcasts are available
Resources:
George Martin :
Delta force theme Indy 500:
Sam Posey:
Boom Baby:
Wonder Indiana: https://blog.library.in.gov/wander-indiana-let-your-wanderin-spirit-come-on-thru/
Mercer:
Lehigh:
Oceans 11:
Original Oceans 11:
The End (Beatles):
Her Majesty (Beatles):
Mid Major Donor Article
Insights from Top NIL Supporters at the Group of 5 Level
Seed Records
Records for every seed in March Madness from 1985 to 2025
Mid Major Viability Article
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If you thoughts or comments about the episode, feel free to comment on YouTube video, comment below, or reach out to Mike (@M_Wiemuth_) and Bob (@BobMoats) on Twitter or in our BHN Discord.