[Xs & Joes 50] Expectations For IU – What Are Reasonable Outcomes For Football and Basketball?
Bob Moats and Mike Wiemuth check in from opposite sides of the country to discuss IU’s impending national championship matchup with Miami and IU basketball's recent struggles.
Bob Moats and Mike Wiemuth check in from opposite sides of the country to discuss IU’s impending national championship matchup with Miami, dissect the Hoosiers’ recent basketball struggles, and explore what reasonable expectations look like for both programs right now.
The Rose Bowl That Wasn’t
Bob and Mike open with the bittersweet realization that their long-planned Back Home Network meetup this weekend could have been in Miami for the national championship game instead of Bloomington for an Iowa basketball matchup.
They discuss IU’s status as an 8.5-point favorite over Miami, the narrative that IU “hasn’t been tested” despite beating Ohio State, Oregon, and Alabama by a combined margin that would make Sherman’s March to the Sea look gentle, and why Miami fans might want to check out Homefield Apparel’s vintage Hurricanes collection before Monday’s game.
Basketball’s Reality Check
The conversation shifts to IU basketball’s brutal week—blowing a 16-point lead to Nebraska and getting boat-raced by Michigan State at Breslin. Bob and Mike break down what’s actually happening beyond the disappointing results:
The roster gaps they identified in the preseason are showing up exactly as predicted—too many elite shooters, not enough drivers or rim protection
Lamar Wilkerson is performing at a legitimate All-American level (near 10 BPM), but when defenses key on him and Tucker DeVries, IU struggles to generate offense elsewhere
Conerway is the only true penetrator, and when teams neutralize him, the offense becomes predictable and easy to defend
Against physically superior teams like Michigan State, IU’s passing windows close dramatically and their carefully designed actions don’t create the same looks they get in practice
The Roster Construction Story
Mike explains the brutal timeline Darian DeVries faced building this roster—hired in mid-April right as the portal was opening, with top guards already off the board before IU even had a full staff assembled.
They discuss how next year’s portal cycle can address many of these gaps, and why this season’s limitations don’t predict future struggles.
Scheme and Psychology
Bob dives into the X’s and O’s, noting IU is getting nearly 20% of their possessions off cuts and off-ball screens—historically high for DeVries—because they have to manufacture offense without dominant drivers or post players. When defenses adjust and take away these actions, IU doesn’t have a clear “what’s next” option.
The mental side matters too: watching players tunnel-vision toward Wilkerson late in games or run actions mechanically rather than reading the defense shows a team still figuring out who they are.
Looking Ahead
They close by previewing Saturday’s Iowa game as a better measuring stick than the Michigan State beatdown, discussing upcoming video breakdowns of IU’s offensive schemes, and teasing a deep dive into Curt Cignetti’s historical context as potentially IU’s greatest athletic department hire ever—regardless of Monday’s outcome in Miami.
This episode brought to you by the Back Home Network and Homefield Apparel.
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The roster construction timeline is brutal. Hiring DeVries mid-April when the top portal guards were already goneis like trying to assemble furniture with half the screws missing. That gap between having elite shooters but no penetrators shows up so clearly when defenses adjust, everything just grinds down. The bit about players tunnel-visioning toward Wilkerson late in games is spot on, happens alot when teams haven't figured out their identity yet.