[Xs & Joes #56] 2026 NCAA Bracket with Andy Bottoms
Bob Moats and Mike Wiemuth are joined by Andy Bottoms to unpack the 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket, the selection process, and what it all reveals about where college basketball is headed next.
In this episode of Xs and Joes, Bob Moats and Mike Wiemuth are joined by Andy Bottoms to unpack the 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket, the selection process, and what it all reveals about where college basketball is headed next.
Bracketology Reality Check
The guys open with Andy reflecting on another Selection Sunday—and why even strong bracket projections can still “grade out” poorly.
Why bracketology success doesn’t always match leaderboard results
The surprising disconnect between predictive accuracy and final rankings
A tongue-in-cheek case for “re-scoring” brackets based on tournament outcomes
Early hints that this year’s committee may have valued things differently than expected
Committee Philosophy & Process
A deeper dive into how the selection committee actually operates—and where subjectivity still sneaks in.
Whether the committee truly follows a strict process or has hidden preferences
Where bias might show up (and where it likely doesn’t)
Why controversial matchups are usually dictated by rules—not conspiracy
The one area of the bracket where human judgment still matters most
What the Committee Really Values Now
This is where things get interesting—and where Andy outlines a subtle but important shift.
The growing importance of “wins above bubble” in getting selected
Why seeding may now lean more on predictive metrics like KenPom
Case studies that highlight the tension between results and efficiency
A key question: Are quality wins losing influence in favor of efficiency metrics?
Mid-Majors, Scheduling, and the System Problem
A fascinating conversation about the structural challenges facing non–power conference teams.
The scheduling paradox: no one wants to play you… but you’re punished if you don’t
Why some programs embrace tough non-conference games—and others avoid them
How newer metrics may actually help mid-majors get a fair shot
The hidden tradeoffs every program faces when building a schedule
Tournament Takeaways (So Far)
After the first weekend, the bracket has been relatively calm—but that might be a feature, not a bug.
Why there were fewer shocking upsets than usual
The one result that did stand out—and why it happened
How style-of-play mismatches can still flip games
A bigger-picture insight about how the tournament may be evolving
The Future of Bracketology
The episode closes with a thought-provoking look ahead.
Could bracketology eventually become fully algorithm-driven?
What we’d gain in accuracy—and lose in drama
The tension between data-driven decisions and human nuance
Why the future might shift the drama from Selection Sunday to the games themselves
Bottom line:
This episode isn’t just about this bracket—it’s about how the entire system is evolving. And whether we’re ready for a world where the madness is a little less mysterious… and a lot more calculated.This episode brought to you by the Back Home Network and Homefield Apparel.
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…we don’t get too far from what has made it special, and exciting, each year. New doesn’t always mean better. But there’s always room for improvement. Thank you, as always, for your excellent insights and analysis.
Aside from our vacations, March Madness is our favorite time of the year. I hope