Inside the Numbers: Why IU Fans Shouldn't Worry About Myles Rice's Freshman 3P%

Some IU fans are worried about Myles Rice's 3-point shooting. Jerod explains why there is plenty of reason to expect the 3P% to improve ... but a different concern worth considering.

Last week, Indiana landed its first transfer portal commitment from Myles Rice of Washington State.

If you are still unfamiliar with Rice’s game,

Tony Adragna

put together some video clips of Rice (along with Kanaan Carlyle and Oumar Ballo) in his latest edition of IU Film Room.

Rice was named Pac-12 Freshman of the Year and led Washington State to an NCAA Tournament berth in his first college season. It doesn’t take much time watching his film or looking at his stats to know this is a commitment worth being excited about. He may not be elite in any one category, but he’s good at everything.

The one fly in the ointment for some IU fans is Rice’s 3-point percentage as a freshman. He shot just 27.5% on the season on 3.75 attempts per game. On its face, that seems like a legitimate concern, especially for a program that has been dragged down by shooting issues for close to a decade now.

However, there are some objective reasons — not just hopeful ones — to simply be all-in with excitement about Rice without worrying too much about the 3-point shooting.

Even good shooters often struggle from 3-point range as freshman

The biggest reason is the reality that many freshman, even good shooters, struggle with the adjustment to both the speed of college basketball and the longer 3-point line. This is why you see so many players shoot poorly as freshmen before making a big jump as sophomores and continuing to improve thereafter.

Yogi Ferrell is a great example. Even in the shooting-focused culture of Tom Crean’s program and being the 5th option on offense, Yogi shot just 30.3% from 3 as a freshman. That jumped to 40.0% as a sophomore, 41.6% as a junior, and 42.0% as a senior.

And while that’s just one example, you see it across college basketball from top prospects and even lesser-regarded ones. Al Durham shot 28.6% from 3 as a freshman, then up to 34.8% as a sophomore and 38.3% and 38.0% in his final two years at IU.

I could go on and on with examples, but you get the point.

Plus, Rice is a good free throw shooter. He shot 81.1% from the line last season on 127 attempts. That is perhaps the best indicator of all that he has good shooting form, touch, and confidence. It may just take a year to extend out to the 3-point line.

It’s also worth noting that Rice suffered a horrible slump down the stretch last season (0-22), which could possibly have been exacerbated by missing two full seasons of basketball after redshirting and undergoing treatment for cancer. So it behooves IU fans to give Rice another full season before judging his 3-point accuracy.

But banking on a sophomore jump isn’t the only reason to resist panic on Rice’s 3-point percentage. There is also reason to believe that he’ll get cleaner looks in the offense IU is building through returning players and portal additions.

Rice stands to benefit from being part of what projects to be a more balanced offensive attack at IU

Let’s dig into Rice’s shooting numbers from last season, via Synergy.

Myles Rice took 234 field goal attempts last season that were either catch-and-shoot jumpers or off-the-dribble jumpers. (These can include both 2-point jump shots and 3-point jump shots.)

Here is what his efficiency looked like, starting with catch-and-shoot jumpers.

Overall, Rice went 18-64 on catch-and-shoot jumpers, scoring 0.83 points per shot. That ranked him in the 25th percentile.

• Of those 64 catch-and-shoot jumpers, 31 were guarded. He shot just 19.4% on those attempts, scoring 0.58 points per shot. That is a very poor efficiency rate, ranking in the 12th percentile nationally.

• The other 33 catch-and-shoot jumpers were unguarded. He shot 36.4% on those attempts, scoring 1.06 points per shot. That is better from an efficiency rate, ranking in the 45th percentile, but still just average.

The other 180 jump shots he took were off the dribble. That was in the 96th percentile nationally in terms of volume. He shot 33.3% on those shots, scoring 0.77 points per shot, which was also in the 45th percentile nationally.

Look, the efficiency is not great here. I can’t argue that. And I understand why people might look at these numbers and get concerned. But what he did at Washington State is only instructive, not predictive. And all we care about is what these numbers might tell us about how he projects at IU in his sophomore season.

So what is the key takeaway here?

When you see a guard taking 77% of his jump shots off the dribble, you know he had the ball in his hands a lot, and was probably tasked with creating for others while not having much created for him.

The numbers back this up.

Washington State had a low team Assist Rate of 45.9% (282nd nationally), and only one player besides Rice had an Assist Rate above 11.1%. So it makes sense why Rice had a shot diet with such a high degree of difficultly — trying to make so many of his shots either off the dribble or guarded. Only 33 of his 234 shots (14%) were clean, unguarded, catch-and-shoot looks, which tend to be the highest efficiency jump shot.

This is one reason I expect Rice’s shooting efficiency to improve. At IU, he will be playing with secondary creators like Trey Galloway and Malik Reneau, plus potentially another dynamic combo guard like Kanaan Carlyle. This will put less of a consistent burden on Rice to take tough shots while likely giving him more opportunities for clean catch-and-shoot looks.

So my advice is to focus on the stats that really matter for a freshman lead guard:

• Solid assist rate (22.7%)

• Manageable turnover rate (18.1%)

• Excellent free throw shooting (81.1%)

• Very good finishing rates at the rim (61.3%)

• Strong steal rate (2.9%)

Those are outstanding numbers, plus he has the experience of carrying an offense (25.8% usage) that won an NCAA Tournament game. You can’t ask for much more from a freshman point guard. And now he’s ours — with three years of eligibility remaining.

That said, there is one issue I have with Rice’s shooting that I hope will improve as he gains more experience and plays with more talented players.

Myles Rice, Indiana, and the dreading long 2

The biggest drag on Rice’s offensive efficiency was his propensity to take long 2 — the most inefficient shot in basketball.

Rice took a whopping 73 long 2s last season, or roughly two per game. That was in the 91st percentile nationally. He shot just 37.0% on those shots, equating to just 0.74 points per possession.

Given the burden Rice carried to Washington State last season, taking some of these shots is understandable. Without having actually watched every game, it’s impossible to know how many of these shots were end-of-shot-clock heaves or bad possession bailouts (which are sometimes unavoidable), and how many were ill-advised shots early in a possession (which are always avoidable).

If Rice can reduce how many of these long 2s he takes, it will boost his overall efficiency on offense. The one potential issue is that this shot is, unfortunately, featured (or at least allowed) in Indiana’s offense.

• Last season, Indiana took 136 long 2s, which was in the 96th percentile nationally. IU made just 30.9% of these shots.

• Two seasons ago, IU took 175 long 2s, which was in the 97th percentile nationally. The Hoosiers actually made 40.6% of these shots that season, but it was still their most inefficient shot.

• Even in Mike Woodson’s first season, IU took 131 long 2s, which was better, but still in the 81st percentile nationally.

So if you’re going to be worried about anything as it pertains to Rice and his shooting, it should be this: the match of a guard who has demonstrated a habit for taking long 2s with a program that either fully embraces the long 2 or, at best, enables a high volume of long 2s. I’ll be paying closer to attention to this than I will Rice’s 3-point shooting, which is fairly easy to predict will improve.

Still, even with this concern about long 2s, landing Myles Rice is unequivocally a home run for Mike Woodson and his staff.

Now we wait to see who else will be surrounding Rice in a rotation that is already shaping up to be more talented and balanced than last season.

Over to you …

• What are your favorite elements of Rice’s game?

• What is your level of concern about his 3-point and/or long 2 shooting?

• What other portal prospects do you think would be good fits next to Rice and the rest of Indiana’s current roster?